Monday Night Football · CHI @ SEA
November 2, 2026 · Showdown analysis and lineup lab · sourced from the CourtEdge data pipeline
Contest-aware lineup lab PRE-GAME MODEL · NOT VERIFIED ROI
Uses the CourtEdge projection and ownership file. Generates valid six-player DK-style Showdown lineups (1 Captain at 1.5× salary and points; 5 FLEX; $50,000 cap; both teams represented). Scores are model estimates, not verified profitable outcomes. Confirm official DraftKings IDs and eligibility before uploading.
Set these to your contest’s actual details. Payout rows below use last paid rank, prize (one row per tier, ascending); each tier applies from the previous tier’s last rank + 1. Example: 1,250000 then 2,100000. Do not copy another contest’s prizes.
ROI and expected profit appear only when a payout ladder passes validation. They remain uncalibrated model estimates and should not be used to assume a positive edge.
Field size and entry fee above are editable illustrative starting values, not a verified CHI–SEA contest. A payout ladder may be entered below for experimental modeled ROI/EV/profit; no official contest ladder is preloaded. Simulation assumes synthetic opponent lineups, not real contest entries.
| # | Captain | Five FLEX players | Salary | Proj | Ceiling proxy | Sim Top 1% | Est. Win % | Avg. field percentile | Stack | Model ROI | Model EV ($) | Cash % |
|---|
Simulated Top 1%, Win %, and field percentile are scenario-model estimates against a synthetic ownership-weighted field, not historical validation. Win estimates are especially uncertain in large fields. Modeled ROI, expected profit, and cash rate require an entered payout ladder; estimates remain uncalibrated without a validated opponent field. This is NOT a DraftKings upload file. CPT IDs are source FLEX identifiers, not verified DK CPT-slot IDs.
Full 20-minute playbook
Bears at Seahawks
November 2, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Cash foundation, GPP game scripts, 8 captain candidates, 10 FLEX candidates and contest-aware lineup construction.
CHI @ SEAPre-lock strategyImportant: No November 2 DraftKings salary/projection or payout CSV is currently attached. These are qualitative pregame priorities, not a verified optimizer output, actual exposure plan or simulated ROI. Confirm all actives before entering.
Executive read
Seattle’s league-leading defense makes Chicago passing-stack exposure a ceiling bet, not an automatic core. Chicago’s explosive recent passing usage creates upside, while Seattle’s passing production through Jaxon Smith-Njigba provides an alternative single-star concentration. Build separate game-script families rather than blending contradictory assumptions.
Confirmed availability and risk
Chicago: Kyle Monangai out, Cole Kmet out for season. Seattle: Charles Cross, Rashid Shaheed and Velus Jones Jr. out; Uchenna Nwosu doubtful on the latest injury report. Zach Charbonnet cleared to play in his season debut and can have a managed workload. Verify final active players before lock. Injury analysis sourced from both teams’ official reports.
Cash-game construction
Aim for secure volume and playing time, not a forced low-owned stack. Assess Jaxon Smith-Njigba, D’Andre Swift, and Caleb Williams with their actual DraftKings prices; Colston Loveland is a candidate for elevated routes and targets without Kmet. Do not label a player a salary-adjusted cash lock until salary and current projection are available.
Eight Captain candidates
Ordered as a qualitative research pool, not optimized captain exposure.
| # | Player | Why considered |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA WR | Strongest target-concentration ceiling profile; beware high popularity. |
| 2 | Caleb Williams · CHI QB | Two-way passing/creation ceiling; difficult defensive matchup. |
| 3 | Sam Darnold · SEA QB | Pairs with Seattle pass-catchers; compare against JSN direct captain. |
| 4 | D’Andre Swift · CHI RB | Workload and touchdown paths with Monangai unavailable. |
| 5 | Luther Burden III · CHI WR | Volatile explosive receiving ceiling. |
| 6 | Colston Loveland · CHI TE | Route/target opportunity with Kmet out; confirm role. |
| 7 | Seahawks DST · SEA DST | Defensive-driven game script, not compatible with every opponent passing onslaught. |
| 8 | Tory Horton · SEA WR | Potential expanded snaps with Shaheed out, dependent on target-role validation. |
Ten FLEX priorities
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Caleb Williams
- Sam Darnold
- D’Andre Swift
- Luther Burden III
- Colston Loveland
- Emanuel Wilson
- Zach Charbonnet
- Tory Horton
- Seahawks DST
GPP structure: game scripts
(A) Seattle passing dominance: Sam Darnold plus Jaxon Smith-Njigba, optional second target, and a Chicago bring-back. (B) Chicago passing success: Caleb Williams with Luther Burden III and/or Colston Loveland, Seattle run-back. (C) Chicago rushing-driven upset: D’Andre Swift captain, potentially lower Chicago WR stacking. (D) Slow defensive game: Seahawks DST and one-touchdown playmakers, with a lower salary total to avoid duplicated builds.
Ownership engineering
Let the final ownership feed drive leverage. Avoid treating low ownership by itself as a virtue: target positive ceiling-versus-ownership tradeoffs. Evaluate Captain × FLEX pair frequency and the probability of sharing first place. Leave unused salary selectively when it produces a credible lineup and lowers duplication; never leave salary solely for uniqueness.
Contest-aware selection
For Single Entry, prioritize a robust, high-ceiling lineup with fewer conditional long shots. For 20-Max, distribute entries across 3–5 coherent scripts and avoid repeated five-man cores. For 150-Max, diversify captain sources and game scripts while emphasizing the combinations with highest simulated portfolio EV. Contest fees, field sizes and complete payout ladders are required to compute Sim ROI and profit accurately.
Simulation checklist
Generate valid Captain (1.5× salary and scoring) + five FLEX lineups, subject to $50,000 total salary, minimum one player from each team, no duplicate players. Monte Carlo sample correlated player outcomes; simulate an ownership-weighted opponent field; allocate prizes across tied ranks; calculate Win%, Top 1%, Cash%, EV, ROI and risk-adjusted ROI. Missing salaries, projections or payout ladders mean the outputs must remain unverified.
Late news and release gate
Recheck final actives, announced starters, snap limits and price/ownership changes within the final hour. Never feed yesterday’s slate pool into today’s builder. An article being public does not prove the builder or simulation is live. Validate both URLs separately.
Source notes
Official team reporting: Chicago Bears game preview and Seahawks injury report. Matchup pricing context: CBS Sports game preview. This analysis uses information available on November 2, 2026, not future results.