UFC 7/11 Playbook: DFS Rankings, Captains & the $40 SE Attack
Ranked by DFS points — with finishing equity and hedge on every fighter. In MMA the finish is the whole game: a decision is a floor, a finish is a tournament. Here's the tiered board, the captain plays, the dog darts, and exactly how I'd beat the $40 Single Entry.
By James at CourtEdge·🥊 Captain Mode · $40 SE·Published for the 7/11 5:00 PM ET lock·CourtEdge Analytics · Proprietary Models
🔥 FIGHT-DAY FINAL (5:00 PM lock — everything you need, one box): Full card rewritten off MadLabs' audio + our sim; the builder runs the same final numbers. All 28 made weight. The plan: cash core Steveson · Basharat · Yanez · Riley · Costa (the middle three project UNDER 20% owned — stud production at leverage prices), Pinas is the cash-optimal captain seat, and the live dogs with real price edge are Pimblett +149 and Krylov +142 (market likes Whittaker −125; the tape and our sim don't). Ownership finals: Holloway ~33% (correct chalk — still play it), McGregor ~23% (still triple his 24% win odds — the fade stands), Green flipped to slight market favorite (coin-flip piece now, not a plus-money dart). Large-field nuance: a quick Holloway KO can win the fight and still miss optimal on a 14-fight slate — split some big-field exposure across the card.
⚡ The 30-second read
The captain: Gable Steveson — 103 projection, 94% ITD, Elite finish, hedge 65+. The surest high-ceiling finish on the card.
The smash-spot core: Basharat, Holloway, Yanez, Pinas, Costa — favorites with High-to-Elite finishing equity.
The dog dart: Terrance McKinney — 58% ITD, Elite finish at underdog odds. The differentiator in a single-entry.
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The full DFS-point rankings with finishing equity & hedge, the captain plays, the dog darts, the fades, and exactly how to beat the $40 Single Entry.